WORLD BANK PREDICTS MODEST ECONOMIC GROWTH IN 2020
Aruba, January 14, 2020 – Global economic growth is forecast to increase to 2.5 percent in 2020, the World Bank says in its January 2020 Global Economic Prospects.
Growth among advanced economies as a group is anticipated to slip to 1.4 percent in 2020 in part due to continued softness in manufacturing. Growth in emerging market and developing economies is expected to accelerate this year to 4.1 percent. This rebound is not broad-based; about a third of emerging market and developing economies are projected to decelerate this year due to weaker-than-expected exports and investment.
U.S. growth is forecast to slow to 1.8 percent this year, reflecting the negative impact of earlier tariff increases and elevated uncertainty. Euro Area growth is projected to slip to a downwardly revised one percent in 2020 amid weak industrial activity.
Downside risks include a re-escalation of trade tensions and trade policy uncertainty, a sharper-than expected downturn in major economies and financial turmoil in emerging market and developing economies.
The report states that there have been four waves of debt accumulation in the last 50 years. The latest wave, which started in 2010, has seen the largest, fastest, and most broad-based increase in debt among the four. Productivity growth, a primary source of income growth and driver of poverty reduction, has slowed more broadly and steeply since the global financial crisis than at any time in four decades.
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