Aruba, November 21, 2019 – Evidence suggests the downturn is ending but recovery is expected to be weak.

Financial markets have been riding high this month, signalling rising optimism about the global economy only a few weeks after the IMF described it as “precarious”. With 2019 looking certain to post the worst global economic performance for a decade — reflecting rising US-China trade tensions and their dampening impact on exports and industrial production — investors see possible green shoots of recovery next year and do not want to miss out on potential gains.  Some of this is not surprising.

The IMF and other forecasters expect 2020 to be better than 2019, but the market moves in recent weeks raise the question now as to whether the outlook is much improved. Investors’ enthusiasm may be overblown. So far the evidence suggests the slide in the global economy is coming to an end, but the pace of recovery is still expected to be weak.

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